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How to find the right matches to bet?

Which way do you prefer to choose your bets?

Somebody just follows his favourite teams or his intuition. "My team X. has to win finally and that's why I must bet that match!" "My dog barked 3 times this morning, so my team is going to score three times today!"

Somebody just picks out the matches according the odds set by bookmakers. "I like the bets with odds 1.78 - 1.82. They bring me money quite often."

Somebody likes to follow the "sure predictions" from somebody else. "Our tips will bring you money, just give us your money!"

Well, we do not want to tell you should not bet that or other way. We just would like to tell you how it is also possible to bet.

How can Trefik help you with choosing your bets?

Trefik does not provide any "100% percents sure win tips". Of course with an exception of surebets feature (comparing the current odds and finding the odds combinations which give you sure win). Trefik provides a strong tool to find the matches to bet according YOUR BETTING STRATEGY. Because you are the one who gives money into that bet and you should really believe into your bets. So it should be YOUR strategy.

Sample strategy definition + test.

You can set up your betting strategy analyzing your ideas about which results should have the teams during the previous (mutual) matches. How many goals did they score or their opponents score. What is their efficiency at matches with the same / similar odds as the current match you consider for betting. What is their efficiency against favourites or outsiders. What is their balance at home or at opponents stadiums. And many other conditions and comparing.

How to define your strategy

The sample picture shows a basic set of conditions (= game FILTER):
Sample Filter for games
There are 2 active sections at this filter. The section BALANCE and the section ODDS.

The section BALANCE has 4 active subsections at this sample:
  • Home team total
  • Home team at home
  • Away team total
  • Away team as guest
(home and away team are the teams at the match which is supposed to be found by the filter .. so all found matches home teams and guest teams must meet the conditions set here).

Every section above contains a lot of conditions which can be activated for the filter.   Filter section: Balance / Home team total
The picture shows the following active conditions:
  • Table position - defines where the team should be ranked at the current competition table (the table valid before the match was played)
  • Result at recent matches - you can define which results should occure during the team recent games. The picture shows the recent FOUR games are considered. There is set that TWO matches had to be lost for the team.
    There is possible to set the maximum of matches with defined result (could be set to TWO at the picture in order there would be just 2 /not more/ losses during recent 4 matches).
    Thanks to the Settings sections it is also possible to set that those 2 losses should happen during last 2 matches (so there would be 2 not-losses and 2 losses during recent 4 games).
  • Odds section with limits for odds at the tip 2 (guest wins).
The filter defined at the picture above finds the matches with:
  • home team ranked at the first half of the table,
  • guest team ranked at the second half of the table,
  • home team loosing two matches from four previous HOME matches,
  • guest team not losing four matches from seven previous AWAY matches,
  • odds for guest victory are within the limit 1.20 - 3.50.
The strategy for using that filter is to find the matches where the home team is stronger (better ranked at the competition table) but at the same time the home team is not at the best shape (losing 2 games from recent 4 games) and the guest team is able to not lost away matches (not losing 4 matches from recent 7 AWAY matches). So we wish to get the bets for outsider playing as guest. There should be quite interesting odds for those bets.
It is possible to TEST that filter at the past results. The date period is defined above the list of matches. The following picture shows the term 01/10/2013 - 28/10/2013. All the displayed matches meet the conditions defined at the test filter.
Browsing Filter sections
The row under the list of matches shows the number of the home team wins, ties and the away team wins. There is the balance 5 (home) - 3 (ties) - 7 (guest win). This statistics does seem bad but we need to know which odds were successfull and which failed.

We can analyze the odds for predictions using the function STATS (the button at the top of the matches list] / PROFIT. We can get this window:
Browsing Filter sections
The left column shows the odds range for analyzed tips.

The next columns shows statistics for each tip. All possible bets are analyzed for all selected matches. It means if there are any odds for the tip then the tip is added into the grid. Every match can be included up to six times at the grid (for every tip 1 / X / 2 / 1X / X2 / 12).
The cells at the tip columns shows the rate of profit against the overall stake. The value "-1 (0/1)" means that there is just one match with the selected odds for the selected prediction and that tip failed. So the value -1 announces that the complete stake was lost.
The value "2.10 (1/0)" means that there is also just one match with odds/tip and the tip succeeded. So the profit is 2.1 times the stake (if it is at the odds row 3.1 then the winning amount is 3.1 times the stake and the profit is 2.1 times the stake).
The value "2.10 (2/0)" means that there are two matches with that odds/tip and both succeeded. So the we can get the profit 2.1 times the stake.
The value "0.32 (1/1)" means there are two matches with this odds/tip and one of them succeed while the other failed. The overall profit rate is 0.32 times the overall stake.

The last row shows the summary for each tip. If the value is positive then there is overall profit for the bets at that column. The picture contains the positive values for the columns "X2" and "2". The value for the tip "2" is "0.36" - there are 15 matches and 7 of them winning the guest team.

The summary is there is the profit 36% from the total stake. Well we have tested just one month and there were just 15 matches meeting the filter conditions. So we would need to analyze more past results. It is not a task for this page as the goal was just to show the principle of using the Trefik filters.
After more testing and smoothing the filter (and maybe including a lot of additinal conditions) it is possible to apply the filter for the future matches. Then Trefik finds the bets which are according to our defined betting strategy.

It is possible to test the work with filters also at the free Trefik demo version.

The last sample here is the list of all filter sections (subsections are hidden, you can find them at the Trefik demo version). This menu is available using the mouse right button or the button at the top right at the Filter window:
Browsing Filter sections
You can combine all those sections with lots of conditions and create many filters. Each filter can present some betting strategy. Some strategies can be for betting on favourite teams, some for outsiders, some for ties, another for number of goals, ... There are many possibilities and you can really play with Trefik to define (and test at the archive results) the best filters which give the best results for you.
 
 
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11/02/2014