The Trefik window Prediction contains also the counted odds values. They are created just using the efficiency at the recent matches (if the home team won just half of its home matches + lost the other matches and the guest team has the same balance at its away matches then the counted odds would be 2.00 for the home team win and 2.00 for the guest team win .. there would be no counted odds for the draw as there was no draw at the recent matches of both opponents).
We can see that the counted odds depends on the opponents at the recent matches. That is one of the reasons these odds can differ a lot from the real odds. Anyway it is interesting to compare these counted odds with the real odds - it can help us to create the prediction for the match.
Trefik users ask us whether it is possible to use the counted odds when filtering the matches at the Trefik window Offer. Let's create a sample with this topic:
We need to work with the values describing the teams efficiency at the filter. The solution is to use the filter section: Filter / Teams / Home Team at home / Wins + Ties + Losts. And for the guest team: Filter / Teams / Away team as guest / Wins + Ties + Losts. It is not the goal to set any conditions for the efficiency values. It is just necessary to work with those values at the window Offer. So we need to set the ZERO conditions at all meant sections:
The counted values depends on the values at the section Filter / Settings. You can define there from which competitions to take the previous matches and from how many past days to count the statistics.
To work with the returned efficiency data is possible at the window Filter / Columns (see the active columns choice at the previous picture). To edit the columns settings just click the button EDIT at the "Columns" row. Then you can change the columns which should be visible at the Offer window:
.. thanks to the current active filter settings we have accessible the new columns "H Wins % Home", "H Ties % Home", etc. These colums are just a tool to get other new values and we do not need to see these percentage values. So we can hide them (DEactivate the first column).
To get the counted odds we need to have 100 times of the reciprocal value from the efficiency percentage. So we need to create two new colums for each prediction (1 / X / 2) and use the availablel functions "1 / X" and "100 * X":
.. the column with the name "H 1/wins" is defined as the function "1 / x" for the value "H Wins % Home". We do not see this column at the Offer window so we can hide him. We wish to see the next new colum "H 100/wins" which is defined using the function "x * 100" for the previous new column.
Repeating described steps we get totally 6 new columns with counted odds for 1 / X / 2 separated for the home team and the guest team.
Then we can create the average values for each prediction 1 / X / 2 .. based always on the odds for the home and the guest team. We can name the average values HA 1, HA X and HA 2. Attention" HA 1 is defined using the wins of the home team and the losts of the guest team (it is not possible to mix wins of the home team and the wins of the guest team. We can use the average odds in comparing with the real odds values.
Now it is time to test the created filter at the past results. We can select soccer and term since April till half of May:
.. the newly created columns "HA 1", "HA X" a "HA 2" are moved right behind the real odds columns.
Now we should compare the counted odds with the real odds in Trefik.
We can try to filter just the matches where the real odds are higher than the counted odds for both home and the guest teams. It is possible to use the feature Filter / Conditions:
.. this window allows to define set of conditions for matches which should be visible at the Offer window. The picture shows conditions for new columns - the counted odds for the prediction 1. They must be lower than the real odds. Which means the real odds are higher than the counted odds.
With the new conditions the filter returns:
If we check the profit for betting found matches we can see (using the feature Stats (the button at the upper area) / Profit the following values:
.. which means that for totally 674 matches (= bets) we get the overall profit MINUS 0.03. Which is not actually bad as we have created very basic filter and we can work with it more to get PLUS range results.
We can try to filter the real odds for the prediction 1. We can eliminate the matches where the home team is not the favorite team at all. It seems to be reasonable to limit the maximum odds value to be 2.50. This can be done by clicking at the heading of the column with odds for the prediction 1:
Then the result of Stats / Profit loos like this:
.. which means when betting always the home win for 176 matches we get 9% profit. That looks very interesting and we can make more analysing in Trefik. We can add some more filter conditions - something for checking the previous mutual matches results could help a bit...